Resolution Minerals seeks a rerating from US critical minerals catalysts

Cashu Research rates Resolution Minerals (ASX: RML) a BUY, with a 12-month price target of A$0.20 versus A$0.052 at the 8 April 2026 opening price. That represents approximately 284% upside in the research house’s valuation framework, although the report assigns the stock a High risk rating. This is Cashu Research’s view, not Cashu Finance advice.

The investment case centres on Horse Heaven, a 100%-owned antimony, tungsten and gold project in Idaho. The report argues that a federal permitting designation, a pending NASDAQ dual listing, strong commodity prices and upcoming drilling could change how the market values the company.

Horse Heaven spans 5,644 hectares in Valley County, Idaho, and shares an eastern boundary with Perpetua Resources’ $3.7 billion Stibnite Gold Project. Resolution Minerals is advancing several targets across the land package, including the Golden Gate gold-tungsten discovery and Antimony Ridge, a historical antimony mine.

Golden Gate’s Phase 1 drilling comprised 14 holes and approximately 3,048 metres, completed in 2025. The program returned broad, near-surface gold mineralisation in every hole, including intercepts of 253 metres at 1.5 g/t Au and 197.5 metres at 1.26 g/t Au from surface. The system has approximately 1,500 metres of combined strike across Golden Gate North and South, remains open and includes tungsten intercepts.

The next major exploration test is a 45-hole, 13,700-metre Phase 2 program scheduled to commence in May 2026. Cashu Research says the program is intended to build towards a maiden JORC Mineral Resource Estimate at Golden Gate, targeted for the first quarter of 2027.

Antimony Ridge adds a higher-grade but earlier-stage opportunity. Historical grab samples returned up to 49.8% Sb, 1,420 g/t Ag and 3.12 g/t Au, while soil sampling defined a 1,000-metre by 700-metre mineralised corridor. A plan of operation for up to 125 drill holes has been submitted, but the project remains subject to the normal exploration and permitting process.

The report presents antimony and tungsten as strategically important commodities in a supply-chain crisis. It says China controls more than 90% of global antimony production and approximately 80% of global tungsten mine production, while export controls have increased pressure on Western buyers.

Antimony prices rose from approximately $9,000 per tonne in 2020 to an all-time high of $59,750 per tonne in July 2025. US in-warehouse prices were cited at approximately $34,000–$38,500 per tonne, still 150–300% above 2023 levels. The report estimates global mine supply at approximately 83,000 tonnes against demand of 120,000–160,000 tonnes per year.

Tungsten APT prices have moved from approximately $300 per mtu to $1,650–$1,900 per mtu, a rise of approximately 500% in the past 12 months. Resolution Minerals’ Johnson Creek asset includes approximately 2,000 tonnes of historic tungsten ore, with a 93.6-kilogram composite sample assaying 1.85% WO₃. The company acquired the 25-acre site in March 2026 along with a processing mill, water rights, electrical infrastructure and accommodation.

This stockpile is central to the near-term valuation argument because it is already in the United States and sits alongside processing infrastructure. The report identifies a planned volumetric survey and processing pathway in the second quarter of 2026 as a potential step towards monetisation, while warning that commodity prices remain a key sensitivity.

On 8 April 2026, Resolution Minerals announced that Antimony Ridge had received FAST-41 federal permitting facilitation status. Cashu Research describes the designation as a signal of national significance, but the report also makes clear that FAST-41 does not change permitting requirements or guarantee approval, funding or a government partnership.

The company is also pursuing a NASDAQ dual listing. It confidentially filed a Form F-20 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2026, but completion remains subject to SEC review and NASDAQ approval. Cashu Research views the listing as a possible gateway to US institutional capital and funding mechanisms including DPA Title III, EXIM Bank and Department of War programs.

The report points to more than $350 million directed to domestic antimony projects over the past 18 months and cites funding precedents involving Nova Minerals, Almonty Industries, US Antimony and Perpetua Resources. These examples support the report’s optionality argument, but they do not establish that Resolution Minerals will receive comparable funding.

Resolution Minerals completed a A$27.1 million placement between September and November 2025 at A$0.05 per share, followed by a strategic A$2 million placement to Tribeca Investment Partners at A$0.08 per share. Cash at 31 December 2025 was approximately A$15 million, and management described the company as fully funded for its 2026 Phase 2 drilling program. The company also divested its 64North Alaska project to Northern Star Resources for US$1.5 million in February 2026.

At A$0.052, the report places Resolution Minerals’ market capitalisation at approximately A$109 million and its enterprise value at approximately A$94 million. It compares that valuation with a reportedly rejected A$225 million offer for Horse Heaven alone in August 2025, while noting that the offer predates the Golden Gate discovery, FAST-41 status and the rise in tungsten prices.

Cashu Research uses a sum-of-the-parts approach rather than a discounted cash flow model because the assets are pre-resource. The report values Horse Heaven at A$360 million after applying uplifts for subsequent developments, then arrives at a total SOTP value of approximately A$435 million after including probability-weighted NASDAQ and government-funding optionality, the Australian portfolio and net cash. Its base case is A$0.20 per share, with a bull case of A$0.25 if government funding materialises after the NASDAQ listing.

The most important geological risk is that Resolution Minerals has no JORC-compliant mineral resource on any project. Surface samples and wide drill intercepts are encouraging but remain exploration-stage results, making the Golden Gate MRE targeted for the first quarter of 2027 a critical proof point.

Commodity exposure also cuts both ways. The report says antimony has already corrected approximately 50% from its July 2025 peak, while a temporary lifting of China’s US export ban and new Southeast Asian smelter capacity have eased short-term supply pressure. A sustained normalisation in prices would reduce the strategic premium assigned to the assets.

NASDAQ execution is another clear risk: any delay in SEC review or NASDAQ approval could push back the expected capital and government-funding catalyst. Dilution is also material, with approximately 2.1 billion shares on issue and 259 million listed options carrying an A$0.10 strike; the report considers further capital raises, particularly for Antimony Ridge drilling, probable.

For investors assessing the research case, the next milestones are the Phase 2 drilling and assay results, the tungsten stockpile survey and processing work, NASDAQ approval, Antimony Ridge permitting, metallurgical test work and the Golden Gate MRE. Cashu Research’s BUY thesis depends on these events converting strategic potential into exploration results, funding access and ultimately a defined resource. The report discloses that Cashu Research or Cashu Group may receive fees for research or corporate communication services from companies mentioned.

The report is general in nature, identifies Resolution Minerals as a High-risk investment and says it does not take an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs into account.