Victory Metals outlines a 20-year North Stanmore development case

Victory Metals has presented a substantial development case for its North Stanmore heavy rare earth project near Cue in Western Australia, reporting a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate, an updated Mineral Resource Estimate and a Pre-Feasibility Study on August 18, 2026. The announcement marks a transition from exploration and metallurgical testing toward mine planning, but it does not represent a final investment decision, construction approval or completed Definitive Feasibility Study.

The PFS base case is underpinned entirely by a 47.0 million tonne Probable Ore Reserve grading 692 parts per million total rare earth oxides and 248 parts per million heavy rare earth oxides. Victory says no Inferred Mineral Resources or Exploration Targets are included in the production schedule, an important distinction because the proposed operating case is based on material that has passed through the company’s reserve and modifying-factor assessments.

The mine plan envisages shallow, predominantly free-dig open-pit mining for approximately 10 years, followed by about 10.5 years of processing stockpiled ore. The proposed flotation plant would process 2.4 million tonnes annually, creating an initial project period of roughly 20 years. The company estimates approximately 29,000 wet tonnes of heavy rare earth-enriched mineral concentrate a year during the initial operating period.

Victory’s Class 4 estimate puts initial process and infrastructure capital at A$155.03 million, including a 30% contingency. The PFS reports a pre-tax net present value of A$1.762 billion at an 8% real discount rate, a pre-tax internal rate of return of 338% and a pre-tax payback period of 1.5 years. On a post-tax basis, the study gives a net present value of A$1.211 billion, an internal rate of return of 240% and payback of 1.5 years. Life-of-mine revenue is estimated at A$6.5 billion on a free-on-board basis.

CEO Brendan Clark said, The numbers speak for themselves. The headline economics are notable relative to the proposed capital requirement, but they remain outputs of a prefeasibility model rather than operating results. The model assumes an average Australian dollar–US dollar exchange rate of 0.69, a 30% Australian corporate tax rate and a 5% Western Australian mineral royalty. It also applies payability assumptions of 65% for payable rare earth oxides and 50% for hafnium oxide.

The company’s own sensitivity analysis shows that project value is most exposed to the product basket, delivered head grade, foreign exchange and metallurgical recovery. Under the reported currency cases, post-tax net present value ranges from A$1.435 billion at an Australian dollar–US dollar rate of 0.64 to A$1.015 billion at 0.74. That spread illustrates why the DFS work, product qualification and commercial terms will matter as much as the headline base case.

The August 2026 global MRE totals 278.8 million tonnes at 483 parts per million TREO, including a maiden Measured category of 70.7 million tonnes. Measured and Indicated Resources total 154.8 million tonnes. Within that broader estimate, Victory identifies a 53.3 million tonne high-grade domain averaging 1,024 parts per million TREO, with 38.0 million tonnes in the Measured and Indicated categories and an average HREO-to-TREO ratio of 32.4%.

The updated resource is smaller than the August 2025 estimate, which contained 320.6 million tonnes. Victory attributes the reduction mainly to a revised reporting footprint following further heritage studies, updated geological interpretation and the exclusion of the Mafeking Bora zone from the MRE. The company says the high-grade domain retained approximately 97% of its previous tonnage and 99% of its average grade, while high-grade Measured and Indicated tonnage increased by 7.2% to 38.0 million tonnes.

That change also highlights the difference between a large mineral inventory and an economically demonstrated reserve. Under the JORC reporting framework, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves are separate categories, and a resource that is not converted into a reserve does not have demonstrated economic viability. For North Stanmore, the proposed production schedule relies on the 47.0 million tonne Probable Ore Reserve rather than the full MRE.

Victory’s selected PFS route is based on flotation beneficiation to produce a heavy rare earth-enriched concentrate for sale to third-party refiners. Pilot operations reportedly achieved an approximately 59-fold upgrade to about 7.1% TREO, at a 1–2% mass pull, with the concentrate containing roughly 40% HREO relative to TREO. Direct whole-of-ore leaching and an onsite hydrometallurgical refinery are excluded from the base case.

The company says North Stanmore’s hydrated secondary phosphate mineralogy may support a less intensive downstream treatment pathway than some refractory primary rare earth concentrates. However, that potential advantage has not been assigned an additional payability premium in the PFS. Victory says further representative test work, customer qualification and negotiations over product specifications and commercial terms are still required.

The project has also accumulated several technical and commercial milestones. Victory reported in February 2026 that test work increased hafnium grade 26-fold and recovered 66% of the hafnium into 3.5% of the original ore mass. In July 2026, the company said it had dispatched heavy rare earth concentrate to potential offtake partners, indicating that product qualification is moving alongside engineering studies.

Victory is pursuing confidential offtake discussions with strategic partners in Japan, Europe and the United States. Its proposed funding package may include project debt, strategic equity, offtake-linked funding and government or export-credit support. The company also refers to an existing letter of intent from US EXIM for up to US$190 million, or approximately A$275 million, but that is not the same as committed project finance.

The regulatory pathway remains substantial. Victory says development will require approvals under State and Commonwealth legislation covering environmental matters, Aboriginal heritage, dangerous goods and water. The company is also replacing some exploration and prospecting tenure with tenure suitable for mining, and says additional tenure will be needed for water access and certain mining activities.

The heritage dimension is particularly material because the revised reporting footprint removed the Mafeking Bora zone from the MRE after additional surveys identified its cultural importance. Victory acknowledges the Wajarri Yamaji and Yugunga-Nya Traditional Owners in the announcement. The company’s next steps include completing the DFS, advancing geotechnical and hydrogeological work, continuing locked-cycle and pilot metallurgical programs, progressing approvals, and converting offtake and funding discussions into binding arrangements.

North Stanmore therefore enters its next phase with a sizeable reserve, a defined processing concept and unusually strong modelled returns. The more consequential test will be whether those assumptions survive detailed engineering, regulatory review, metallurgical scale-up, customer qualification and financing. Until that work is complete, the PFS should be read as a development framework with significant remaining execution risk rather than as evidence of an operating mine.